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While the past one year has been a boom period
with most mutual funds returning exceptionally
good returns, the other periods have seen moderate
returns. So are mutual funds really worth while
?
Mutual funds are collections of monies placed
by thousands of investors in an asset management
company that then deploys these funds based
on specific objectives and criteria to bring
in collective returns for the investors. A percentage
of the total funds normally 2-4% is assigned
to the cost of managing the fund and these go
towards the expense of the operations of the
fund. The balance becomes the investment corpus
that is then distributed by the fund managers
with an objective to derive regular income or
capital appreciation while balancing risks.
Each fund would be guided by the principal objectives
that are stated when the fund invites participation
from investors.
Mutual funds deploy their corpus into the stock
markets through both primary market (IPO) and
secondary market investments as well as in fixed
return securities such as government bonds,
company papers and others. The proportion of
investment is determined by the objectives of
the fund. Funds are classified as Equity, Debt
or Balanced and vary in risk and return. While
the equity funds carry higher risks, they strive
for higher returns. Debt funds invest in low
risk and consequently low and fixed return instruments.
Balanced funds try to provide a balance between
these two.
Over the past year until May 2004, the mutual
funds had a dream run that was not seen before
in the Indian markets. Some funds saw an appreciation
in investments of upto 160% in the twelve month
period as the equity markets boomed and the
BSE Sensex went from around 3000 points to cross
6000 at its peak.
This boom followed a 3 year drought that the
markets experienced after the collapse of the
markets in 2000. These three years saw very
dismal returns to investors in most cases less
than 5-6% each year.
So if you invested in the past year you would
probably have reaped rich windfalls from your
investment in mutual funds and if you have been
investing for sometime you would just about
have recovered some of your losses in the past
year.
So the question really is : are mutual funds
worth investing in ?
The answer to this is not really easy considering
the past few years. However a look at the larger
picture throws a different light.
Today we are at a stage where interest rates
are at their lowest. The prime RBI rate is around
6.5% and this means that bank deposits do not
bring in even this amount. The long term bank
payout rate is about 6%. Inflation is now back
at the 5-6% levels so you are really not making
any money at all from your debt investments.
Real Estate is an option but the boom is over
and the annual growth rates are now in the range
of 10-15% annually. Gold and silver are too
risky to invest in. They follow very volatile
cycles and are difficult to track.
The next few years are expected to be a good
period for Indian companies and their stocks.
The economy has been growing steadily over the
past few years and this growth and the competitive
advantage that India has been gaining globally
in industries like software, business process
outsourcing, pharmaceutical, bio-technology
and automobiles will show up in further growth
over the rest of this decade. Other industries
like textiles, garments and engineering are
also following suit and are expected to boost
export earnings. Agriculture that has been a
laggard should also see better times with the
new retail thrust on processed foods.
The area of political uncertainty is over for
the present and the new government seems to
be as committed to growth and opening up of
the economy as the previous one.
In such a scenario, against the backdrop of
the returns that other avenues of investment
provide, mutual funds seem to be a good bet.
There are no guarantees and the returns could
turn out to be a mirage. It is however expected
that the worst case will see funds delivering
atleast what is the realistic return that we
can expect from other instruments such as bonds
and deposits.
It is important that we balance out our mutual
fund portfolio to have a spread of fixed income
and equity instruments. It is important to note
that mutual funds are not only about equity.
There are a number of funds that invest in fixed
income schemes and strive to provide a steady
income.
Depending on your risk profile, you could set
aside some proportion of your total investment
portfolio for mutual funds. Within this you
could further divide your investments across
many funds and apportion across higher risk
equity and lower risk debt schemes.
For example you could say that 15% of your total
investment portfolio will be invested in mutual
funds.
Of this portfolio, you could assign 40% into
equity schemes and 60% into debt schemes.
Chances are that the debt schemes will provide
a return that is atleast equal to the deposits
you have. The equity schemes could either provide
you a higher return or come closer to the debt
rate.
Since only 40% of 15% ie 6% of your total investment
portfolio will be subject to this risk, you
might not lose too much. You might however gain
in the event of the markets doing well.
All said and done, mutual funds are managed
by a professional team that has large investible
funds at their disposal and are qualified for
this area, far better than we are as individuals.
They do this as a whole time career and spend
a lot of time in research and analysis. They
would therefore be better equipped to handle
money markets than we would be with the limited
time that we have.
It might be therefore good to maintain some
portfolio in mutual funds. Mutual funds are
not short term investment avenues and generally
deliver returns only when spread over a medium
term of 2-3 years. The next 2-3 years should
see steady growth in our economy and the capital
markets and therefore mutual funds might just
deliver.
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